Posts Tagged ‘society’


System Failure

by adminadam in home



Long Cycles and the Possibility of a Third World War Coming Soon

by adminadam in articles

Basándose en la teoría de los ciclos largos de la actividad económica, la tercera guerra mundial podría empezar en los próximos 10 años, según un académico ruso.

En esta década le espera al mundo una “gran inestabilidad política y tecnológica” y los países que no se adapten al nuevo ciclo se retrasarán unos 50 años en su desarrollo, afirmó el miembro de la Academia de las Ciencias de Rusia y profesor de la Universidad Estatal de Moscú (UEM) Serguéi Málkov, en una reunión en el Consejo Presidencial de las Ciencias y la Educación de Rusia.

Un grupo de científicos de la UEM analizaron los ciclos económicos y el nivel de conflictos militares en los últimos 200 años y concluyeron que estos dos fenómenos están relacionados entre sí.

En la moderna economía mundial capitalista, los ciclos largos, también llamados ondas de Kondratiev, son unas fluctuaciones cíclicas de largo plazo, entre 40 y 60 años, compuestas por fases de ascenso y de descenso de entre 20 y 30 años.

Durante la fase de ascenso, el crecimiento rápido de la economía provoca también la necesidad de cambios sociales. Sin embargo, el desarrollo social no alcanza el ritmo económico, abriendo la fase de descenso, que se caracteriza por crisis económicas y ánimos depresivos en la sociedad. Eso, por su parte, obliga a reestructurar el sistema económico, político y social.

Las dos guerras mundiales del siglo XX demuestran las fases de crisis de las ondas de Kondratiev. La Primera Guerra Mundial (1914-1918) puso fin a cuatro grandes imperios (el ruso, el austrohúngaro, el otomano y el alemán).

La Segunda Guerra Mundial (1939-1945) es considerada como el conflicto armado más grande de la humanidad al implicar a 61 países en los que vivía un 80% de la población mundial. Fue la única guerra en la que se emplearon armas nucleares.

Mientras la Primera Guerra Mundial pertenece a la llamada onda de la revolución técnica (1880-1940), la Segunda corresponde a la de la revolución científico-técnica (1940-1985).

Los partidarios de la teoría de los ciclos largos consideran que actualmente está terminando la quinta onda de la moderna era capitalista, que es la onda de la revolución de la información y las telecomunicaciones (1985-2015). Los científicos admiten que el paso al siguiente ciclo hipotético puede implicar un tercer conflicto mundial. Algunos ven señales de la llegada del nuevo ciclo en la crisis financiera y las tensiones en la península de Corea.

FUENTE:, 7/4/13

Based on the theory of long economic cycles of activity, the third world war could start within the next 10 years, according to one Russian academic.

In this decade the world is expected to experience a “great political and technological instability” and the countries that do not adapt to the new cycle will be left behind by some 50 years or so in their development, claimed Seguéi Málkov, a member of the Academy of Russian Science and professor of Moscow State University (MSU), in a (recent) meeting with the Russian Presidential Advisor of Science and Education.

A group of scientists from MSU analyzed economic cycles and levels of military conflict during the last 200 years and concluded that these two phenomena are (closely) related.

In our modern capitalist economic world, these long cycles, also known as Kondratiev Waves, are long term fluctuations that last between 40 and 60 years, which are themselves composed of phases of ascent and descent each lasting between 20 and 30 years.

During the ascent phase, the rapid growth of the economy provokes many social changes as well. However, social development that does occur does not match the rhythm (or speed) of the economic change, and furthermore, once the economy enters the descent phase again, society experiences economic and social stagnation and depression. This, in part, leads to political, economic, and social restructuring.

The two world wars of the 20th century demonstrate the phases of crisis of Kondratiev Waves. The First World War (1914-1918) put an end to four great empires (the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and German Empires).

The Second World War (1935-1945) is considered the largest armed conflict in the history of humanity and involved 61 countries (in which 80% of the whole world’s population lived). It was the only war in which nuclear weapons have been used.

While the First World War belonged to the so called wave of the Industrial Revolution (1880-1940), the Second corresponds to that of the Scientific & Technical Revolution (1940-1985).

The proponents of the theory of Long (Economic) Cycles opine that the fifth wave of the modern capitalist era, that of the Information & Telecommunications Revolution (1985-2015), is currently ending. These scientists fear that entry into the next hypothetical cycle could mean a third global conflict. Some see (early) signs of its arrival in the financial crisis and the tensions in the Korean Peninsula.

SOURCE:, 4/7/13



Dr. Cornel West at Skidmore

by adminadam in education, videos

Key Ideas from This Talk:

  • No man is an island; we’re all ‘born in funk’ and we all will ‘die in the funk’.
  • Denial, dodging, and dismissal of death, maximum distraction and “deodorized” discourse.
  • Learning to die, through/with Philosophy, as a means to real growth.
  • A more just society requires more critical, courageous thinkers that can even give up their dogmas when necessary.
  • Holding opposing ideas simultaneously in our head, and yet still continuing to function, e.g. the U.S. as both a Noble Experiment in Democracy and an Ignoble Experiment in Empire.


Future Shock (Minus Three)

by adminadam in art, home, quotes

From Nick Lepard, November 2008 (website)

“In my most recent work I explore notions of singularity, concepts of time and patterns of change.

Today, modernity requires that each of us navigate a blizzard of information. How this maelstrom of data is interpreted and synthesized constructs an individual’s paradigm. However, the qualities of the data are subject to a Catch-22: while the data works to describe an individual’s paradigm, an individual’s paradigm likewise works to describe the data.

With so much accessible information, yet so little certainty, are our interpretations of the world more complex or confused, more varied or more refined? Is the course of progress more accessible, or more elusive?”
Telefire, by Nick Lepard


Future Shock (Minus Two)

by adminadam in art, articles, home, music, videos

“The more things change, the more they stay the same.”

The Ways in Which We Change, by Nick Lepard


As we saw in Minus One, the future can be a very shocking proposition when it is extrapolated far out enough. But we all have to deal with the day-to-day just like anyone else. This, I believe, is why stuff like the iPad and it’s raved successors won’t be progressively more exciting, but less — these things won’t noticeably change our lives while the pace of innovation is so high (not that the iPad is the best representation of innovation, of course).


I just hope we can hang on if things really do get fast, like the futurists believe will happen. Say, if we have a computer that can improve itself, jump to the next generation in a year, and keep pace. If one existed, and many attempts (and approximations) are underway, then the second generation computer could spawn a third in six months. Continue this trend and by the tenth generation (around two years from initial boot-up), the thing is up to one-new-generation a day and greater. Can we even prepare for this? (Is there a possible answer here, at the Singularity University?)


  1. One year until generation two.
  2. Six months until generation three.
  3. Three months until generation four.
  4. 45 days
  5. 22 days until a great great grandchild is born.
  6. 11.3 days until generation seven.
  7. 5.6 days
  8. 2.8 days until generation nine.
  9. 1.4 days
  10. Now it’s only 17 hours until generation 11, and it’s been roughly two years.


Say the first generation from above is a human-level intelligence. Just humor me. If we could, let’s also assume a doubling time of one year initially. We get to 1000 times human capacity after around 623 days, or 1.7 years. We just can’t imagine what an intelligence of 1000 times the human capacity would do, nor can we easily grasp how swiftly it would continue to evolve.

This is the essence of the singularity — not even being able to guess at what’s next when we’ve got relentlessly evolving intelligences around. Pretty vaguely, this seems to be telling us this: In the future, we are nearly equally as likely to be shocked because of our ignorance as we are to be apathetic from seeing too much change in too short a span. Indeed, these are some strange times, and the future isn’t even here yet…


Something I felt to be perfect for these curiously-lagging-times:


Future Shock (Minus One)

by adminadam in articles, education, home, humor

Too much info and too many wild concepts to consider.

Let’s put it this way — To be able to hold this all in one’s mind without panic, or blind faith, or manic passion, to be able recognize the likelihood and probability of these progressively stranger concepts without a significant rise in blood-pressure; that is what it would mean to not be in future-shock.

When I Was an Animal, by Nick Lepard

The Shock Levels

What of this can you contemplate without exhibiting future-shock? Example symptoms of future shock: total astonishment, fear, blind enthusiasm, and downright-disbelief. By knowing what doesn’t shock you, you will know the extent of your own future-shock. So go ahead, apply this question to the following high-tech concepts: Are you astonished, frightened, giddy? Or do you react calmly to the prospects?


Would you believe that there are cars and airplanes? There’s also this maze of tubes through which people can throw information at each other. It’s called the internet. Oh, and pay phones are almost completely gone now; everyone carries a mini-phone around in their pocket.

Now if Shock Level 0 comes as a surprise to you, then how in the world are you reading this!? Do you know someone with access to a home-printer? Yes, don’t be scared; they exist too and are relatively cheap, except for the ink cartridges of course; they cost you an arm and a leg, wouldn’t you know it!


This is where we see the emergence of virtual and online cultures and economies, just a lot more interaction online: Stuff like Second Life, Amazon, WOW, BitCoin, Skype, and Twitter. We can now easily live to be 100 if we are fortunate enough to live in the developed world and take expert care of ourselves.

Level 0 people are quite surprised at what you can do virtually nowadays: Like ride a bike, or own your own home!


Three people now have lived to be 200 years old! They got lots of body repairs done, did constant detox, nano-operations, and stem-cell “plastic” surgeries to look young. It helps that everyone drinks genetically-modified beer with resveratrol in it now, too.

Accidents happen though; we can still die by way of Acme anvils. Speaking of which, they tend to fall out of the sky much more often than probability would dictate nowadays. Must be the neo-luddites throwing some anarchy into the equation. But I digress…

Oh, also in Level 2 — We explore other planets and send probes to those in other solar systems. There are many artificial and genetically modified organism, like the How-Now-Talking-Brown-Cow and Pink Marshmallow Elephants. Also, human subcultures are diverging; many people are talking about how they are basically different species now: cyborgs and traditional humans. The cultural rift continues to grow.

There isn’t really much inter-breeding going on either, if you know what I mean… virtually sure, but that’s not exactly re-productive… (cough).


Here we’ve got mature nanotechnology, bots swimming in your veins monitoring your vitals, and some that connect your nerves with your own personal internet cloud. The cyborgs and AI’s are working hard on their own intelligence all the time, so extropy is shooting through the roof in our little solar system. We are also anvil-proof. How? Just click backup in your Macbook Pro’s Mind-Time-Machine. Congratulations, you’ve now got a spare copy of your consciousness just in case anything anvil-related were to happen. I can’t recommend the XP version, though — too buggy.

Also in Level 3: Humans and robots are leaving the galaxy, but there are still some 10 billion left on Earth. The boundaries of Earthlings (as they are all called) are expanding; we’ve surely contacted other intelligences by now, or so most everyone believes — Nöosphere Media Control has been trying to keep it under wraps, you see…

“Ok, so most modern sci-fi geeks would laugh you off stage if you seriously told them it was happening as we speak, but they would believe it could happen someday, right?”, asked the participant.

“Yes, Mage Judy. You are now Level 3.”

SHOCK LEVEL 4 — Try this one on for size…

You exist as multiple copies of yourself; you can’t die unless all self-iterations will it simultaneously. Each self-iteration can, though, change their personality completely — as easy as it was for those 2010-ers to switch to Ubuntu.

Much of the matter in our galaxy has been converted to Computronium, or, all purpose computing clay. One drop of this stuff computes as much as the 2010 human population could and it’s totally malleable. It can create, be molded into, and process anything, so solid reality has become quite fluid, with everything linked to The Ubiquitous Internet 12.0^Cubed.

We’ve gone through a singularity (or two, depending on who you ask) and ultra-intelligence is saturating the whole known universe. We’re also performing physics hacks on the universe’s substrate. If we succeed we’ll tamper and spawn a few thousand more universes slightly removed from ours and linked by wormholes; they’ll have the perfect parameters for new life to develop independently from the elements of their own gradually-cooling mini big-bangs. (See Biocosm)

“So life as we know it is basically kaput then, it’s unrecognizable from my world, that’s what you’re saying…” offered Level-3 Mage Judy.

“That’s exactly right.” said Level-4 Apotheosis Wizard Tim.


Future Shock Levels, Eliezer S. Yudkowsky

Accelerando, a book by Charles Stross


“The classification is useful because it helps measure what your audience is ready for; for example, going two Shock Levels higher will cause people to be shocked, but being seriously frightened takes three Shock Levels. Obviously this is just a loose rule of thumb!  Also, I find that I often want to refer to groups by shock level; for example, “This argument works best between SL1 and SL2”.

This does not mean that people with different Shock Levels are necessarily divided into opposing social factions; it’s not an us-versus-them thing.” — Yudkowsky


Shenzhen, Maybe Five Kilos

by adminadam in education, home

So hard writing about China
five thousand years old
wielding power,
the width of their culture
not to mention mass
compared to
let’s say
America, at only
250 grams.
The concept is flabbergasting
yet awfully trite
i.e. unimpressive generally,
but if that’s your subject matter
then you gotta write about it,
and how better than in the form of a long detailed documentary.

Or you could weigh the culture using a modern scale.