Via XKCD.

The universe is a self-organizing theatre production.

The Cast (in order of appearance): King Physics, Joker Chaos, The Queen Emergent, Biology Jack, Intel Ace.

The Crew: Quantum Gods (producer), Accelerando (director), The Last Question (stage manager)

THE QUEEN EMERGENT: ACT ONE

singularity
boom, expand
goo, stuff, particles, waves
elements, gasses, suns
boom, elements, gasses, suns
boom, rocks, suns .. boom, rocks, planets

“Lovely start.”
“Yes, very nice. Love the goo.”

ACT TWO

planets, radiation, shift, plates
comet, water, comet, water
elements, oceans, chemistry

chemistry, chemistry, lightning
compounds, compounds, proteins, lava
death, rocks, rocks
death, rocks, rocks

“Hmmm.”
“Yeah… Seems a bit formulaic.”

ACT THREE

oceans, oceans, oceans
chemistry, lightning, compounds, proteins
proteins, rocks, life
death, rocks, death, rocks
oceans, oceans, oceans

“Interesting.”
“Lots of death and rocks, I see.”

ACT FOUR

chemistry, life, life, biology
evolution
diversification
extinction, diversification

“Alright. Here we go.”

ACT FIVE

diversification, intelligence
intelligence, tools, culture

agriculture, tools, towns
language, culture, tools, math

towns, culture, society,
science, industry, science
technology, technology, intelligence explosion

“Love the dancing in that number…”
“Indeed.”

ACT SIX

intelligence explosion, network, network
intelligence explosion, greater mind

collection of elements
collection of energy
unification, contraction

unification, contraction
unification, contraction
contraction, contraction, collapse

THE END

“Over already? What a shame!”
“BRAVO!! Bravo, I say!”

The universe is a self-organizing theatre production.
Will it collapse into nothingness, or be reborn like a phoenix?
Or are there more productions going on all the time in a grand theatrical ecology of sorts?

All we know now is that it looks as if science is the foundation,
and everything else is dramatically emergent;
everything else is the result.

“Most complicated negotiations are predictable.”

Bruce Bueno de Mesquito, CIA & DOD Consultant/Game Theorist

~

Analog to Asimov’s Psychohistory realized in Game Theory-Based Computer Simulations with 90% success rate in predicting future political outcomes.

This to me represents the pinnacle (or a pinnacle) of the outsourcing of information processing in order to supplement human intelligence — and it has extropy written all over it.

In his TED presentation (below), Bruce Bueno de Mesquita lays out his predictions for Iran and its nuclear future. The essential pieces of information in Game Theory based-predictions, the questions that must be asked, are as follows, and these are what BdM runs through his own simulations:

1. Who are the key players, or agents of influence?
2. What do they say they want?
3. How focused are they on the one issue, as opposed to multiple issues?
4. How much persuasive influence do they have?

Outcome and credit are also important to consider, i.e. how valuable are these to the key players? If we know how willing the key players are to sacrifice themselves for a cause, we can also predict how reasonable (or unreasonable) they would be in negotiations. If they don’t care at all about the credit, they probably won’t hear any pleas for negotiation. However, if they are “reasonably self-interested”, so to speak, they may want their name on the final treaty that is drawn up and hence would be willing to sit down and chat with you. Most people, according to BdM, fall somewhere in between absolutely wanting credit and wanting a definite outcome.

Game Theory is a field of mathematics that applies all of the above pieces of information with the following assumptions about individuals:

• People are “rationally” self-interested, that is, they try to do what they think is in their own best interests.
• People have values and beliefs.
• People have limitations.

Interesting to note at the end of the video the speaker’s answer to the question of what impact such simulated outcomes could have upon word reaching the ears of the Iranian Key Players; that “the Americans” believe it will be futile to try to rouse the masses to get behind bomb building… Wouldn’t this just spur them on all the more?

‘No, no, just the opposite’, BdM says. ‘Iran will make just enough to demonstrate their capacity to make a bomb, and perhaps settle on that stance quicker having seen my predictions’ (paraphrased).

“Let’s hope so”, says the TED man. Yes, indeed, I say — inşallah.

Watching this kind of makes me want to study Game Theory. : )
Any good book recommendations amongst you readers out there?

Begin.

From the University of Utah with an intuitive format. Try it!

“The 20th century was not 100 years of progress at today’s rate but, rather, was equivalent to about 20 years, because we’ve been speeding up to current rates of change. And we’ll make another 20 years of progress at today’s rate, equivalent to that of the entire 20th century, in the next 14 years. And then we’ll do it again in just 7 years. Because of this exponential growth, the 21st century will equal 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate of progress — 1,000 times greater than what we witnessed in the 20th century, which itself was no slouch for change.”  — Ray Kurzweil and Terry Grossman (from fantastic voyage)

From our standpoint, let me get this straight, we will likely see 200 centuries of progress in a mere one!? With this in mind, we can predict that our medical technology should also progress analogously; that is, incredibly fast. The Methuselarity (alternatively, Actuarial Escape Velocity) is the notion that we can add more than one year’s life expectancy every year. Meaning that while my life expectancy may be about 80 or 85 at the moment, once we reach actuarial escape velocity, this number will climb by more than one year each year… Fascinating. It is truly a wonderful thought… But what are the roadblocks? What conditions must be met?

For one, we need to *not* blow ourselves up. Second, science and technology must continue to develop reasonably; meaning no oppressive, innovation-blocking world governments should be allowed to rule (Go wikileaks!). Third, we are not struck by an asteroid. Fourth, the higgs-boson does not end up being a sentient, malevolent subatomic particle intent on annihilating us all. And, finally, Neo-luddites do not bring about total anarchy… (although I do like their reverence of nature.)

Meeting all these caveats, we can dawn our cave-hats and have a party of indefinite span! No, really… It means: help hold the world together, stay healthy, and you may just live to sing “when I’m one-hundred-and-sixty-four”. What do you think? (See this SENS Foundation FAQ) … Would you object?

“The essence of the human species is to extend and expand our boundaries.”
– Ray & Terry

What is the Nöosphere? Pierre Teilhard de Chardin described it as ‘a collective consciousness created by the deepening interaction of human minds’. In other words, it is a hive mind, one which we can say is developing through the internet and connectivity-enhancing technologies. This is not new news, but where it may take us is very exciting indeed.

When we consider the number of scientists in the world, estimated at 10 million, and the possibility, not only of more entering the field, but of greater and greater networking between them, plus certain cognitive augmentation which would allow them to work more effectively as individuals, their increased potential productivity is staggering. If through nootropics (cognitive enhancement drugs, i.e. ritalin, ritalin 2.0, etc.) their average productivity could be increased even by 1%, the net effect would be the same as adding 100,000 more scientists to Team Civilization.

I’m all in favor of whatever measures we have to take to make it through the purportedly tumultuous times ahead of us in this next century. The usual fears about losing our humanity in the process of augmenting it notwithstanding, I am seeing a lot of agreement amongst futurists and future-minded scientists, and they all seem to be saying that if we can make it another 50 or 60 years without blowing ourselves up, then we might have powerful enough thinkers and ‘intelligences’ rallying us together for the common cause of civility that we would be able to avoid wrecking our planet or opting into any kind of oppressive global governance.

One key in this equation seems to be educating ourselves to the tune of long-term risk assessment and long-term planning. Humans are acutely inept at grasping what lies beyond a 10 or 20 year future timeline or what exponential growth really amounts to. If we are going to make it as a race, it behooves us and our children to keep reading and learning and directing our species.

Here is an article that really helped me get started: Do us all a favor and enter the Nöosphere (article by The Atlantic). This will help you understand how nootropics, accelerated-scientists, and knowledge-filtering tools could lead to the creation of greater-than-human intelligences which may very well be our saving grace. Check it out!